Georgia’s drought is so bad that even a rainy week won’t make a dent

Rain is in the forecast nearly every day this week across Georgia, but weather forecasters say it will not put a meaningful dent in one of the worst droughts the state has seen.

What’s Happening: According to the Nationnal Weather Service, 98% of Georgia is in a Severe Drought or worse. About 27% of the state has reached Exceptional Drought, the highest level on the drought scale.

The Numbers: Four Georgia cities show just how far behind the state is on rainfall since the water year began October 1:

• Atlanta is 11.77 inches below normal
• Athens is 12.47 inches below normal
• Macon is 13.86 inches below normal
• Columbus is 14.60 inches below normal

Will this week’s rain help? Not in any meaningful way. To get even within 5 inches of normal by the end of May, Atlanta would need 10.32 inches of rain this month alone — a record-breaking amount. The historical odds of that happening are less than 1% for every city the weather service tracks.

By the Numbers: The outlook doesn’t improve much over a longer stretch. Over the next three months the chance of getting within 5 inches of normal ranges from about 3% in Macon to about 11% in Athens. Over six months, those odds range from about 3% in Macon to about 14% in Athens.

The Path Forward: Getting within 5 inches of normal would require more than 19 inches of rain over three months and more than 31 inches over six months across most of the state. Even a wetter-than-average spring and summer would likely leave Georgia well short of those totals.

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