Rain is in the forecast nearly every day this week across Georgia, but weather forecasters say it will not put a meaningful dent in one of the worst droughts the state has seen.
What’s Happening: According to the Nationnal Weather Service, 98% of Georgia is in a Severe Drought or worse. About 27% of the state has reached Exceptional Drought, the highest level on the drought scale.
The Numbers: Four Georgia cities show just how far behind the state is on rainfall since the water year began October 1:
- Atlanta is 11.77 inches below normal
- Athens is 12.47 inches below normal
- Macon is 13.86 inches below normal
- Columbus is 14.60 inches below normal
Will this week’s rain help? Not in any meaningful way. To get even within 5 inches of normal by the end of May, Atlanta would need 10.32 inches of rain this month alone — a record-breaking amount. The historical odds of that happening are less than 1% for every city the weather service tracks.
By the Numbers: The outlook doesn’t improve much over a longer stretch. Over the next three months the chance of getting within 5 inches of normal ranges from about 3% in Macon to about 11% in Athens. Over six months, those odds range from about 3% in Macon to about 14% in Athens.
The Path Forward: Getting within 5 inches of normal would require more than 19 inches of rain over three months and more than 31 inches over six months across most of the state. Even a wetter-than-average spring and summer would likely leave Georgia well short of those totals.
B.T. Clark
B.T. Clark is an award-winning journalist and the Publisher of The Georgia Sun. He has 25 years of experience in journalism and served as Managing Editor of Neighbor Newspapers in metro Atlanta for 15 years and Digital Director at Times-Journal Inc. for 8 years. His work has appeared in several newspapers throughout the state including Neighbor Newspapers, The Cherokee Tribune and The Marietta Daily Journal. He is a Georgia native and a fifth-generation Georgian.
