The tropics are heating up with multiple opportunities for storms to develop in the Atlantic basin that could bring impacts to the United States over the next week.
“The tropical development potential map in the Atlantic is lit up like a Christmas tree with four different risk zones,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “We are quickly approaching the heart of the hurricane season. People need to be prepared, especially with the potential of ‘homegrown’ storms that develop near the coastline. Tropical storms and hurricanes that spin up near the U.S. coast in abnormally warm waters leave less time for people to prepare, react and evacuate compared to a storm that develops out in the open Atlantic and takes days to approach the U.S.”
AccuWeather hurricane experts are also monitoring a tropical rainstorm in the Pacific that is forecast to bring flooding rainfall and mudslides to parts of western Mexico.
Tropical activity in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Dexter continues to track northeastward across the open waters of the Atlantic. No direct impacts to land are anticipated, but shipping and cruise routes in the Atlantic may experience rough seas through Saturday.
A strengthening high pressure over the Northeast, along with a budding tropical rainstorm along the Southeast coast, will pose a risk for dangerous rip currents and rough surf along the East Coast beaches through this week.
AccuWeather uses the term “tropical rainstorm” to refer to certain tropical systems that can bring significant impacts from rain and wind prior to official classification as a tropical depression or storm to raise public awareness.
AccuWeather hurricane experts are forecasting a medium risk of tropical development off the Southeast coast from Aug. 7 to Aug. 9. Any development can bring rain and wind impacts to portions of the Southeast coast later this week.
The front that helped spawn Dexter, which has stalled off the coast of the Southeast, may spin up another tropical rainstorm or tropical depression.
Should a tropical rainstorm or tropical depression develop, it will track northeastward over the Atlantic Ocean.
“Even though the center of the budding storm will likely stay offshore, slow movement and proximity to the Carolina coast would still result in some downpours and wind in that region from late this week to the start of the weekend,” DaSilva said. “Because it will remain over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream for a couple of days, strengthening to a tropical depression or tropical storm is not unreasonable, with heavy rain and a risk of flooding along part of the immediate southern Atlantic coast a concern.”
AccuWeather hurricane experts are also monitoring an area to the east of the Lesser Antilles for a high risk of tropical development from Aug. 8 to Aug. 11. No direct impacts are expected to land at this time, but any development could bring rough surf and rip currents to portions of the eastern Caribbean.
AccuWeather hurricane experts have also highlighted a low chance of tropical development in the northeastern Gulf from Aug. 10 to Aug. 12. Any development could bring gusty showers and thunderstorms to much of the eastern Gulf Coast next week.
The fourth risk zone highlighted in the Atlantic basin is an area of low risk of tropical development potential for the Lesser Antilles and eastward from Aug. 12 to Aug. 14.
“One that has been assigned a likelihood to develop from Aug. 8 to Aug. 11 is likely to turn to the north before reaching the northeastern islands of the Caribbean,” DaSilva said. “A second tropical wave, a couple of days later, that we believe has a chance to develop, could take a more southerly track across the Caribbean.”
AccuWeather hurricane experts say there is a low risk of tropical rain and wind impacts across Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Lesser Antilles and South Florida from Aug. 14 to Aug. 20.
“Tropical wave activity off the west coast of Africa typically ramps up in early August, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing this week,” DaSilva explained. “A tropical wave coming off Africa this week needs to be watched very closely. It takes roughly 12-14 days for a tropical wave to emerge from Africa and track all the way across the Atlantic basin.”
AccuWeather hurricane experts say tropical rainstorms, tropical storms and hurricanes that develop near the U.S. coast, often referred to as ‘homegrown development’, often bring impacts to the U.S. within two days.
Tropical threats that evolve off the coast of Africa or in the open Atlantic often take a week to two weeks to track across the ocean before bringing impacts to the Caribbean and U.S.
Tropical threat in the Pacific
AccuWeather hurricane experts say Tropical Storm Henriette is expected to track westward, well southwest of Baja California Sur. No direct impacts to land are anticipated at this time, although there can be an increased potential for rip currents in Hawaii this weekend as the storm passes to the north of the islands.
A tropical wave is located southwest of Mexico and is not forecast to develop at this time.
A tropical rainstorm has developed south of Mexico and is expected to parallel the coast over the next several days. The rainstorm is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm on Thursday as it moves northwest. The next name on the list would be Ivo.
While most of the wind will remain offshore, AccuWeather hurricane experts say heavy rain can still fall across southwestern Mexico. The rainfall can lead to flooding and localized mudslides in the higher terrain.
A large swath of 1-2 inches of rain is expected from western Jalisco to southern Oaxaca. The heaviest rain will be closest to the coast with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 5 inches. This heavy rainfall can lead to flooding and localized mudslides in the higher terrain. If the rainstorm tracks closer to the coast, there can be higher rainfall amounts.
The tropical rainstorm is expected to bring heavy rainfall and dangerous rip currents to southern Mexico this week.
The rainstorm will also bring dangerous waves and rip currents to the Mexican coast into this weekend. Due to flooding rain, this tropical rainstorm is a less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico.
A less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes warns of limited damage from wind and rain, as well as coastal inundation resulting in some property damage.
