Frank Luntz is a conservative Republican pollster… perhaps the most astute of his kind. In a Nov. 21, 2016 Time magazine column, he analyzed the results of the 2016 “shake-up” Presidential election. I believe he was spot on.
To refresh your memory, in 2016 virtually all pre-election polls had Hillary Clinton as the sure winner of the 2016 Presidential election. Per Luntz, these 2016 polls were off because a certain segment of voters were so alienated that they chose not to participate in polling. I assume that when they were contacted, they probably said that they were just too busy to take the call. Undoubtedly, some of the more apathetic said that they were undecided, even though they were not, just to avoid an explanation. Or what they anticipated would be tacit disapproval by the interviewer.
But more to the point, Luntz stated that the key to a successful presidency would be “if he can make peace with those he profited from attacking.” Per Luntz’ 2016 Election Day polling, an amazing 69 percent of swing voters wanted “leaders who are willing to compromise and work with everyone to get things done.”
Even more telling- although 65 percent of Democrats agreed…only 35 percent of Republicans did. That is Trump’s base to this day. Nothing has changed for them. Therefore, for the last decade, Trump has successfully played to his base, taking extreme right-wing actions, unilaterally gutting regulations as well as issuing outrageous executive orders just to see what he can get away with.
Among other less substantial, but totally ridiculous items, he renamed the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America and the Department of Defense the Department of War…and the Kennedy Center the Trump/Kennedy Center. Although a judge reversed the Kennedy Center naming, he mostly gets away with his shenanigans due to a compliant Supreme Court and Congress. On more substantial items, in his first term, he withdrew from the Paris climate accords, although virtually all scientists (and many business leaders) opposed the move. And in his second term, he has decided to go to war without ever asking for Congressional consent, as required by our Constitution. And his MAGA apologists are saying that he won that war…even though his concessions make it obvious to any impartial observer that he lost much more than he gained (https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/2026/06/trump-g7-comments-misunderstsand-middle-east/687569/ ).
Throughout all his outrageous actions, Trump’s base, about one-third of the electorate, have been 100 percent with him. I spoke with a close friend, a retired blue-collar worker barely making ends meet, and asked him why he still supports Trump. His answer was that he is not a Democrat. In other words, Trump is “sticking it to the lib elites”. I disagree, but understand these alienated, frustrated, uneducated people stretching the truth to see Trump as their savior.
However, it is the swing voters, the independents and moderates who voted for Trump that I cannot understand. They wanted positive change rather than the same old party politics. But before voting in 2024, they should have remembered his intransigence and irrationality. Yes, Harris should have stated that she was going to do things differently than Biden on key items like immigration and inflation/economy. Still, based on his dismal first term record, including his attempt to steal the election via the January 6th insurrection, moderates should have turned against Trump and the GOP. But they did not. His approval levels among these groups are at record lows. But now it is too late; we are stuck with him through 2028…if not beyond, given his propensity to ignore the Constitution.
