- AccuWeather is forecasting a medium probability of a white Christmas for Denver, Salt Lake City, Omaha, Minneapolis and Chicago
- AccuWeather is forecasting a low probability of a white Christmas along the Interstate 95 corridor for Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C.
- The last time more than half of the United States experienced a white Christmas was in 2022 and 2012
AccuWeather long-range experts say more towns and cities across the United States are expected to experience a white Christmas this year, compared to 2023.
“There’s hope for a white Christmas in more places this year, compared to last year,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.
To officially be considered a white Christmas for the record books, one inch of snow or more must be on the ground on Christmas morning.
Northeast U.S.
The turbulent weather pattern that has brought snow to parts of the Northeast could deliver another blast of snow and rain to parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley just before the holidays.
“There will be a lot of temperature ups and downs along the East Coast ahead of the holidays,” Pastelok said. “Things look good for the few towns and cities around the Great Lakes that have been buried in feet of lake-effect snow this month, including Erie, Pennsylvania, which has had its snowiest start to winter on record.”
Pastelok says there is a high likelihood that higher elevations and areas that typically have a white Christmas will have snow on the ground this year, but the key factor for lower elevations will come down to the temperatures on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
“The cold sticks with us at the start of Christmas week, but then it warms up as we head towards the middle of the week on Christmas,” Pastelok said.
AccuWeather is forecasting a low probability of a white Christmas along the Interstate 95 corridor, including Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. However, AccuWeather long-range experts are closely monitoring a potential disturbance that can move through Christmas morning with some rain or snow. While there is the potential for snowflakes, surface temperatures may be too warm for any snow to accumulate.
Pastelok says up-and-down temperatures and recent rain on snow have been a challenge for some ski mountains across the Northeast, but conditions are expected to improve for snowmaking in late December.
“It’s been a temperature roller-coaster, which makes it tough for ski mountains to build and maintain the snowpack on the slopes,” Pastelok said. “We’re in a pattern with the Pacific air mass bringing milder air and storms with rain instead of snow. That’s not good for the ski mountains. This is exactly what we called for in our ski forecast; rounds of snow and colder air to make artificial snow in early December, followed by milder periods and rain before the holidays. We do expect colder air to return and more opportunities to make snow between Christmas and into the new year.”
Northwest
A stormy pattern has recently brought rounds of mountain snow to higher elevations in Northern California, parts of Oregon and Washington. Pastelok says more rounds of snow are expected in the higher elevations ahead of Christmas.
“The mountains of Northern California and the Northwest are looking good. Storms will bring in more opportunities for snow in the higher elevations before Christmas,” Pastelok said. “Those storms will bring rain to the lower elevations and along the Pacific coast. In many lower spots, it’s just not cold enough for snow.”
Rockies & Central U.S.
Towns in higher elevations across the Rockies have a solid snowpack, but Pastelok says lower elevations, including Denver, may not experience a white Christmas this year.
“The higher elevations of the Rockies are looking great, but lower elevations in the Rockies have been missing out on snow in recent weeks,” Pastelok said. “The storm track is not looking favorable for producing more snow before Christmas. The lack of precipitation could lower the odds of a white Christmas from the Foothills into the central High Plains.”
AccuWeather long-range experts say a strong cold front could bring a blast of colder air through the Plains and Midwest next weekend.
AccuWeather is forecasting a medium probability of a white Christmas for Denver, Salt Lake City, Omaha, Minneapolis and Chicago.
Southern U.S.
Climatology shows a very low historical probability of a white Christmas across much of the southern United States.
Pastelok says the trend will continue this year with a low chance or no chance of a white Christmas across the southern third of the country.
AccuWeather long-range experts say a strong cold front could bring a blast of colder air to parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast next weekend and into the start of Christmas week.
White Christmas history
A white Christmas remained a dream for many last year, with snow absent from the holidays across much of the country, except for a few lucky locations in the Northeast, the West and parts of the northern Plains.
Records show only 16.7 percent of the United States had an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning, 2023.
The top years for a white Christmas in recent history include 2022 and 2012, when more than half of the country experienced a white Christmas.
