Wet weather is forecast to not only put a damper on beach vacations across a corridor of the South-Central and Southeastern states this week, but it could also lead to some trouble spots as the week progresses, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
“It’s time to find an umbrella across the South Central and southeastern states, because we’re talking about some wet weather to come,” AccuWeather On-Air Meteorologist Jessica Pash said. The clash of two air masses will set the stage for persistent drenching downpours across the region, she explained.
A cool front that helped to take the edge off of heat and lowered temperatures by 5-10 degrees across the Southern states Sunday into Monday has stalled and is forecast to linger along the Southeastern coast for the balance of the week. The front has run into an atmospheric roadblock thanks to an area of high pressure near Bermuda that has strengthened and drifted westward a bit. This setup will help to funnel in moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic — a factor that will enhance rainfall.
The stalled front will not only bring lower daytime temperatures and daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, but it has the potential to cause flooding and dangerous conditions for bathers and boaters.
For many locations from the northeast Gulf Coast to the southern Atlantic coast, Monday was likely the best day at the beach this week as the rain-making machine is likely to rev up on Tuesday and remain active for the balance of the week.
“While areas from southeastern Louisiana to southeastern Virginia could see a downpour any day this week, the most persistent rainfall is forecast from the Florida Panhandle to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, where a general 4-8 inches of rainfall could fall through Friday,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said.
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Daily amounts of 1-2 inches of rain with locally 2- to 4-inch amounts may fall.
An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 15 inches is forecast in the pattern through Friday and is most likely to occur along the North Carolina coast.
Much of the area in the Southeast that is forecast to experience repeating rainfall this week can take a reasonable amount of rain. Many locations have picked up 80-120% of average for July and year-to-date rainfall. However, conditions can change quickly and the pattern this week is likely to cause trouble.
“As the rainfall from the downpours repeats and adds up, the threat for flash flooding will also increase,” Travis said.
Areas prone to taking on water during heavy rainfall events, such as the City of Charleston, may need to take precautions.
On an average summer day, a sea breeze will often push clouds and rain several miles inland so that the barrier islands and Intercoastal Waterways are generally free of rain. In this case, however, many of the downpours may occur right on the coast as well as dozens of miles inland.
Major cities forecast to be in the pipeline of rainfall much of this week include Tallahassee, Florida; Savanah, Georgia; Charleston and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; and Wilmington, North Carolina. Periodic downpours will also extend farther to the northwest and reach cities such as Pensacola, Florida; Dothan, Alabama; Macon, Georgia; Columbia, South Carolina; Fayetteville, North Carolina; and Norfolk, Virginia.
Some rain will also extend farther inland over the Southeast states. The wettest portion of the week is likely to be Tuesday to Wednesday in cities such as Charlotteand Raleigh, North Carolina, and Greenville, South Carolina.
As a series of weak storm systems moves northeastward along the front, episodes of heavy, gusty thunderstorms can occur right along the coast and over nearby waters offshore. This setup will raise the risk of lightning strikes for those on the beach, while sudden rough seas and winds from the storms can become dangerous to small craft. There is even the risk of a few waterspouts spinning up in the pattern.
“The coverage of heavy rain and thunderstorms is likely to be the most widespread during the afternoon and evening hours, and outdoor plans at this time of day may need to be altered due to wet weather,” Travis said.
However, with this pattern there is also the likelihood for some downpours to occur outside of the typical afternoon and evening hours during this time in summer.
The relentless downpours will lead to hazards and slow travel for motorists due to ponding on roadways and reduced visibility.
During the second half of the week, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to expand northward. As a reinforcing southward dip in the jet stream develops over the Midwest from Wednesday to Friday, steering breezes are likely to draw at least some of the moisture up into the Northeast.
For those not under the firehose of moisture this week in the South, highs that were well into the 90s to near 100 F have been swapped with highs mainly in the 80s this week and should offer an improvement for those seeking outdoor time for activities or work.
As an exception, much of the Florida Peninsula will remain south of the swath of rainfall, and typical August heat and humidity is forecast to persist. Highs will climb within a few degrees of 90 much of this week.
As many areas in the Midwest and Northeast experience a taste of autumn this week, some less-humid air will filter into the southern Plains, Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians and the Piedmont areas of the Carolinas and offer a break from typical steamy August conditions.
The dry air is likely to be welcome in some locales in particular. It is forecast to end persistent downpours and flash flooding that have riddled portions of central Texas, northwestern Louisiana and central and northern Mississippi since this weekend.
How long will tropical Atlantic stay quiet?
AccuWeather meteorologists often monitor for the risk of tropical system development when a front stalls near the Gulf or Atlantic coast in the summertime. Even though there is a risk of such an occurrence, strong winds at mid-levels of the atmosphere should keep that possibility extremely low this week.
A tropical wave spinning thousands of miles to the southeast will be watched for slow development as it moves westward later this week, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said. “Overall, conditions over the tropical Atlantic will still remain hostile for development this week due to vast areas of dry air and dust, as well as disruptive winds aloft,” Miller said.
The month of August typically marks the uptick in the Cabo Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season as dry air wanes, water temperatures reach their peak and disruptive winds diminish. The Cabo Verde season is named for a group of islands off the northwest coast of Africa, and it is the breeding grounds for the bulk of the hurricanes that tend to form from late August to early October.
