Election 2022: Brian Kemp has a razor-thin lead over Stacey Abrams

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams are in a virtual dead heat, according to a new poll.

The survey of 950 Georgia adults, including 753 registered voters, found Kemp holding a 1-point lead over Abrams, 45% to 44%, statistically considered a tie.

The poll, conducted July 21 through July 24 by SurveyUSA, showed Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock ahead of Republican challenger Herschel Walker by 9 points, 48% to 39%.

The poll found Kemp leading Abrams by 10 points among men, while Abrams was ahead by 7 points among women.

Kemp was up by 11 points among voters aged 50 or older, while Abrams held the advantage among voters below age 50 by 8 points.

The survey showed a strong racial divide, with Kemp up by 46 points among white voters and Abrams 76 points ahead among Black voters.

In the Senate race, the poll found Warnock leading Walker by 17 points among women and by a nominal 2 points among men.

Like Abrams, Warnock was ahead among voters under age 50 by 22 points. The Democrat only held a slight 2-point lead among older voters.

Black voters supported Warnock in the polls by a huge 80-point margin, while white voters backed Walker by 28 points.  

Warnock is up by 39 points in urban parts of Georgia and by 19 points in the suburbs, while Walker leads by 28 points in rural communities, according to the survey.

The poll also demonstrated the same ticket-splitting trend that has shown up in other surveys. Of voters who plan to vote for Kemp, only 78% said they would vote for Walker.

Ticket splitting was less of a factor on the Democratic side. Of those who said they would vote for Abrams in the gubernatorial race, 93% indicated they also would support Warnock.

Further down the statewide ballot, Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger was 7 points ahead of state Rep. Bee Nguyen, his Democratic challenger, according to the poll. Twenty percent of voters surveyed said they were undecided.

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr was up by a smaller margin – 4 points – over Democratic state Sen. Jen Jordan. In that contest, 24% of voters said they were undecided.

The pool of adult respondents to the survey was weighted to U.S. Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.

This story is available through a news partnership with Capitol Beat News Service, a project of the Georgia Press Educational Foundation.


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