Tropical Storm Fred all but came back from the dead and made landfall Monday near Cape San Blas, Florida, with 65-mph sustained winds, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Over the weekend, Fred was a tropical depression and was barely discernible in satellite imagery. Early this week Fred restrengthened and nearly reached hurricane force (maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) by the time it hit the Gulf Coast Monday afternoon.
There are two main threats to lives and property stemming from Fred moving forward, even though the storm will move inland over the eastern United States and slowly unravel through midweek. The more widespread risk will be due to the potential for flooding. A more isolated threat will result from severe thunderstorms that can spawn tornadoes.
As of 5 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Fred was about 25 miles from Columbus, Georgia, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph as it tracked north-northeastward at 14 mph, according to the NHC. As of early Tuesday, Fred had lost its tropical storm designation and is now a tropical depression. The next step for Fred will be to slip to tropical rainstorm status.
“By the middle or end of the week, Fred’s circulation may dissipate enough to make it difficult to track exactly where the center of the tropical rainstorm is. Nonetheless, the tropical moisture will remain,” explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle were only the first targets of some of the highest rainfall totals from Fred. The Panama City, Florida, area received between 6 and 10 inches of rain from the tropical storm.
Fred is forecast to move rather quickly this week, limiting the chances for multiple days of rainfall for the region. However, just a few hours of heavy tropical rainfall deluging the same area could trigger flash flooding. Flash flood watches were issued by the National Weather Service across the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and western Georgia on Monday.
A general 1-4 inches of rain is forecast to fall in a swath from eastern Alamaba and northern and western Georgia to northern Pennsylvania and part of upstate New York through Thursday night. Most of the rain will fall in the Southern states into Wednesday evening, while the bulk of the rain associated with Fred will fall in the Northeast from later Tuesday night to Thursday night.
The 1-4 inches of rain is not a major concern, except where it falls in several hours. Some locations have the potential to receive more than two times that amount of rain in a day’s time.
“An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches can fall,” Douty said. That sort of rainfall is most likely to occur in the mountains and foothills of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee, as well as northern Georgia and southwestern Virginia. In these hilly and mountainous areas, there is a heightened risk of flash flooding, mudslides and rock slides, regardless of the state of soil conditions prior to Fred’s arrival.
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Rapid rises can occur along small streams, underpasses and in poor drainage areas that can strand motorists. Drivers who travel through secondary roads in the mountains should be on the lookout for debris and mud that may block their path.
As the week progresses, Fred is forecast to move inland across southeastern Alabama, before turning northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, losing wind intensity as it does so.
The amounts of rainfall that are forecast could lead to significant problems hundreds of miles inland from the Gulf coast.
Widespread 2-4 inches of rain is forecast from the Mississippi-Alabama border and southern Georgia on northward into West Virginia and central Virginia. The concentration of heaviest rain, aside from the Gulf Coast, is likely to be in the Appalachian Mountains of northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina, where more than 6 inches of rain is possible.
Well in advance of rain directly associated with Fred, close to 6 inches of rain fell on portions of western North Carolina Monday morning. Rapid runoff contributed to a sharp rise on the French Broad River at Rosman, North Carolina. Flooding was reported in the Lincolnton, North Carolina, area.
With the amount of rain anticipated, rises on area rivers that flow out of the Appalachians are likely. It is possible for some roads to be blocked by rising water.
One area that could use the rain is across West Virginia and Virginia, where abnormally dry and slight drought conditions were reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor last week. Steady rainfall in this area may help out the dry conditions in that region.
Even in the dry spots in the mountainous areas, so much rain can come down so quickly it could raise the risk of flash flooding, mudslides and rockslides.
People in the Southeastern states will need to keep an eye out for rapidly changing weather conditions as another significant risk from Fred into midweek will be the potential for severe weather.
Bands of thunderstorms, mainly on the eastern flank of the northward-moving storm, can become intense enough to bring localized strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Into Tuesday evening the greatest risk for tornadoes will extend from northeastern Georgia and upstate and midland South Carolina to western and central North Carolina and southwestern and south-central Virginia.
In some cases, the tornadoes can be wrapped in rain or may occur after dark Tuesday. In both situations, the tornadoes may be difficult to see and warn well in advance as the storms may only spin up and dissipate in a matter of a few of minutes.
While the strongest wind gusts from Fred occurred within the first few hours surrounding landfall, locally damaging wind gusts continued to be a factor for parts of the Southeast well into Monday night.
As Fred turns toward the Northeast states Wednesday, the risk of severe weather will be significantly lower, but there can still be strong storms and perhaps a couple of isolated tornadoes in portions of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania and New Jersey Wednesday and into Wednesday evening.
Apalachicola, Florida, reported a wind gust to 68 mph, just 6 mph shy of hurricane force, which is 74 mph. Close to 30,000 utility customers were without power in the states of Florida, Georgia and Alabama as of daybreak Tuesday morning, according to PowerOutage.us.
Well behind Fred is Grace, which is forecast to travel through the Caribbean and impact several of the same islands that were just hit by Fred a few days ago before heading across the Gulf of Mexico. A third system joined the fray in the Atlantic early this week. Tropical Storm Henri formed late Monday afternoon, according to the NHC, and is forecast to take a circular path around the islands of Bermuda this week.
