{"id":15239,"date":"2020-05-09T09:48:02","date_gmt":"2020-05-09T13:48:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thegeorgiasun.com\/?p=15239"},"modified":"2020-08-12T12:57:24","modified_gmt":"2020-08-12T16:57:24","slug":"georgia-tech-model-says-georgia-is-about-to-see-a-spike-in-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thegeorgiasun.com\/?p=15239","title":{"rendered":"Georgia Tech model says Georgia is about to see a spike in coronavirus cases and deaths"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A new COVID-19<\/a> model from Georgia Tech projects increases of thousands of cases and deaths in the state by mid-August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The university\u2019s Center for Health and Humanitarian Systems and Health Analytics Group say that depending on how much the public follows physical distancing measures in the coming weeks, Georgia\u2019s total number of COVID-19 deaths could range from 6,100 to 17,900 by that August time frame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the peak day, the state could see 44,800 to 77,700 new cases, according to the analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deaths from the virus currently total 1,360 in Georgia, with more than 32,000 people confirmed as testing positive for the disease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pinar Keskinocak, director of the Center for Health and Humanitarian Systems<\/a>, said the model emphasizes the importance of shelter-in-place and the public\u2019s compliance with social distancing, especially a \u201cvoluntary quarantine\u201d when a household member is sick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The recent reopening of the state\u2019s economy, she said, is expected to lead to increases in cases and deaths. \u201cThe peak that we should all be concerned is still ahead of us. The rate of new infections will soon pick up again and increase in the coming weeks,\u201d said Nicoleta Serban, who leads the Health Analytics Group<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Georgia Tech analysis<\/a> uses an \u201cagent-based\u2019\u2019 simulation model that the authors say captures the progression of the disease in an individual and also interactions in households, workplaces, schools and communities. It utilizes state demographic data to help arrive at its conclusions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The model implements different social distancing scenarios, including school closures, shelter-in-place, and voluntary quarantine. The latter is defined as when person shows cold- or flu-like symptoms, all household members stay home until the entire household is symptom-free.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur models indicate that if we could achieve very high levels of [voluntary quarantine] compliance, possibly with intermittent shelter-in-place, that would help significantly reduce infection spread,\u2019\u2019 Keskinocak said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat happens moving forward depends on what we do,\u2019\u2019 she added. \u201cHow we behave makes a big difference in numbers. The primary tool we have now is social or physical distancing, in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral treatment.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other models of the COVID-19 impact on the state also project a significant increase in deaths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A widely cited analysis from the University of Washington\u2019s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation<\/a> projects 4,913 COVID-19 deaths in Georgia by Aug. 4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The IHME model is useful for making short-term predictions, Keskinocak said. The Georgia Tech analysis, on the other hand, represents what she calls a \u201ctransmission model.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you are looking for longer-term clues regarding how the pandemic will play out, pay attention to transmission models, even though they have their own built-in uncertainties,\u2019\u2019 she said. \u201cOur model captures the transmissions at a very detailed level, and enables us to do predictions under different potential scenarios.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asked about such model projections, Gov. Brian Kemp<\/a> said at a Capitol news conference Thursday that \u201cwe\u2019re going to continue to follow the data.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Models may not incorporate all the social distancing requirements that states have implemented, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur numbers continue to look very good,\u2019\u2019 Kemp said, citing a drop in the percent of positives per number of tests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think it\u2019s important for Georgians not to get scared or panic because somebody has a new model that says something,\u2019\u2019 Kemp told reporters.  \u201cAll models are wrong.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kemp emphasized he can take further action if the pandemic situation worsens in the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weighing different models<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Georgia Department of Public Health said Friday that it considers a number of models, weighing the strengths of each, when trying to estimate the COVID impact in coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The agency said it has worked with the Georgia Tech modelers, as well as those from the IHME, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Pennsylvania. Officials have overlaid hospital capacity data by region to anticipate medical need based on these models. These data will be shared with hospitals and health care regions to help them better prepare, said Public Health spokeswoman Nancy Nydam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Georgia Tech model predicts that demand for hospital beds would exceed the capacity available for COVID-19 patients in most regions of the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Georgia hospitals in recent weeks have increased bed capacity to handle a potential surge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIncreased testing, contact tracing, social distancing and use of face coverings in public are all steps that are critical to stopping further spread of infection and deaths from COVID-19,\u2019\u2019 Nydam said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Andreas Handel of the University of Georgia\u2019s College of Public Health said the Georgia Tech study \u201cseems well executed.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe results and conclusions strike me as reasonable,\u2019\u2019 said Handel, who studies the spread and control of infectious diseases. \u201cThere is of course uncertainty inherent with any such prediction models.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One factor that doesn\u2019t appear to be in the Georgia Tech model, Handel said, is the impact of warmer temperatures on virus transmission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHowever, any weather-related impact is likely not large enough to alter their overall conclusions by a large amount. Overall, I think the results of their study are in the right ballpark,\u2019\u2019 said Handel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI believe the idea that we can go back to normal or something close to it at this point is simply not supported by the facts,\u2019\u2019 Handel said. \u201cWe need to try everything to reduce transmission further.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He cited continued use of\u00a0shelter-in-place, quarantine, and wearing masks. \u201cAnd we should also try to ramp up approaches that rely on testing, tracing and isolating individuals.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new COVID-19 model from Georgia Tech projects increases of thousands of cases and deaths in the state by mid-August. The university\u2019s Center for Health and Humanitarian Systems and Health Analytics Group say that depending on how much the public follows physical distancing measures in the coming weeks, Georgia\u2019s total number of COVID-19 deaths could […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":15079,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7286],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coronavirus","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thegeorgiasun.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thegeorgiasun.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thegeorgiasun.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thegeorgiasun.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thegeorgiasun.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15239"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thegeorgiasun.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15239\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thegeorgiasun.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15079"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thegeorgiasun.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thegeorgiasun.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thegeorgiasun.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}